WNBA Playoff & Championship Predictions for 2025
Happy (almost) WNBA Opening Day! Or maybe it will be Opening Day when you are reading this.
I’m excited to have actual games to analyze instead of previewing what might happen this season. But for my last piece of preview business, I want to share my playoff and championship predictions for the 2025 WNBA campaign.
WNBA Playoff Predictions 2025
1. New York Liberty
2. Las Vegas Aces
3. Indiana Fever
4. Minnesota Lynx
5. Atlanta Dream
6. Seattle Storm
7. Los Angeles Sparks
8. Phoenix Mercury
You can quibble with the order, but I feel good about these eight teams making the playoffs. I’m sure injuries will play a factor, but these are the eight best teams entering the 2025 season.
My top four is the expected quartet, though I have the Lynx lower than most. They didn’t do enough to improve their roster after last year’s WNBA Finals loss, which is notable because they are due for some regression after leading the league in both 3-point shooting and defensive 3-point percentage.
I’m high on the Dream under first-year head coach Karl Smesko. They have the best chance of playing spoiler to the top four, especially if shots fall in their 3-point revolution. Atlanta attempted 75 total 3-pointers in two preseason games.
The Storm, Sparks, and Mercury could finish in any order. The way I have it now sets up the most entertaining Round 1 matchups.
I’m least confident in my Mercury projection, as they could finish as high as No. 5 or fall out of the playoffs with their top-heavy roster.
Whatever. It’s done. There is no going back now.
WNBA Finals: Liberty defeat Aces
Despite these two teams being the championship favorites, I’m guessing this pairing is the least-projected WNBA Finals matchup. There are four championship contenders, and I’m sure most are backing Minnesota’s revenge season or Indiana’s breakthrough campaign.
I could certainly see either team reaching the WNBA Finals. However, I can’t help but shake this feeling that we are due for another Aces-Liberty showdown in the final year before the new CBA shakes up the league and everyone changes teams.
The concerns about the Aces’ depth and defense are a tad overblown. They ranked sixth in defensive rating during their first championship run in 2022. Becky Hammon has also never really asked much from her reserves.
The Aces were gassed by the end of last year following back-to-back titles, but that shouldn’t be a problem this time. Chelsea Gray is healthy, while A’ja Wilson had the offseason off when most of her competition played in Unrivaled.
Las Vegas could get some reinforcements, including Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, who will give birth in late June. As long as the Aces can avoid falling to the No. 4 seed again this year, I like their chances of reaching the WNBA Finals.
That said, I ultimately chose the Liberty to defend their title. The defending champions somehow improved by trading for Natasha Cloud, who is the perfect backcourt partner for Sabrina Ionescu.
After coming off the bench for most of her rookie season, Leonie Fiebich will have a bigger role. The tandem of Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones in the frontcourt is difficult to top, especially for an Aces team with less support for Wilson.
New York’s depth and cohesiveness should ultimately prevail in a seven-game series.
Prediction: Liberty in 6